交通运输2025年度策略报告之内需篇：航空观票价，快递在格局，海运危化品看需求

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [2][10]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of fare rates in both passenger and freight transport sectors, with a focus on the recovery of air travel and the dynamics of the express delivery market [20]. - In the passenger segment, air travel demand is expected to remain robust, with ticket prices potentially having bottomed out in 2024, leading to high profit elasticity for airlines as consumer spending recovers [3][20]. - In the freight segment, express delivery is projected to maintain a growth rate of 10%-15% in 2025, driven by the rise of e-commerce and changing consumer behaviors [6][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Aviation: Supply Constraints and Profit Elasticity - The aviation industry's profitability is influenced by capacity supply, travel demand, load factors, ticket prices, fuel prices, and exchange rate fluctuations [22]. - In 2024, the industry saw a recovery in load factors and improvements in fuel prices, with ticket prices remaining low, impacting airline profitability negatively [25][40]. - Future capacity growth is expected to be limited, and if economic recovery occurs, it could lead to increased ticket prices and enhanced airline profits [50][51]. 2. Express Delivery: Growth Potential and Market Dynamics - The express delivery sector is expected to continue its high growth trajectory, with a projected business volume increase of 10%-15% in 2025, supported by the growth of live-streaming e-commerce and declining package values [6][21]. - Major players in the express delivery market are likely to engage in price competition, which could alter the competitive landscape [7][21]. - Companies like SF Express and ZTO Express are highlighted for their strong growth potential and market positioning [7][21]. 3. Domestic Shipping and Hazardous Goods Logistics: Supply Constraints and Demand Elasticity - Domestic shipping and hazardous goods logistics face strict supply constraints, with regulatory measures limiting capacity and operations [8][9]. - Demand for these services is closely tied to economic performance, and any recovery in demand could lead to increased freight rates and profitability [9][8]. - Companies such as Zhonggu Logistics, Hongchuan Wisdom, Xingtong Co., and Shenghang Co. are recommended for investment consideration due to their potential benefits from demand recovery [9].