Zijin Mining(601899) 民生证券·2025-01-22 09:57Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 32 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 51.5% [1]. - The company has adjusted its production targets for copper and lithium due to various operational challenges, including power shortages in the Democratic Republic of Congo [3]. - The report anticipates net profits of 32 billion, 37.9 billion, and 42.9 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 13, 11, and 10 times [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Forecast - The company forecasts a net profit of 32 billion yuan for 2024, with a growth rate of 51.5% compared to the previous year [1]. - For Q4 2024, the expected net profit is 76.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.3% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 17.6% [1][2]. Production and Pricing - The company plans to produce 1.07 million tons of copper in 2024, with a target of 1.11 million tons, but has faced challenges that may prevent meeting this target [2]. - The average copper price in Q4 was 75,500 yuan per ton, remaining stable, while gold prices increased by 8% to 616 yuan per gram [2]. Financial Projections - The projected revenue for 2024 is 307.4 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.8% [5]. - The report includes detailed financial metrics, such as a projected net profit margin of 10.41% for 2024 [9]. Production Plans - The company has set a production target for 2025 of 1.15 million tons of copper and 85 tons of gold, with adjustments made due to operational constraints [3]. - The lithium carbonate production target has been reduced to 40,000 tons due to low lithium prices and project delays [3].