Daqo Energy(688303) 中原证券·2025-01-22 11:17Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase of 5% to 15% compared to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [10][22]. Core Views - The company is experiencing significant losses due to the downturn in the polysilicon industry, with projected net losses for 2024 ranging from 2.6 billion to 3.1 billion yuan [6][9]. - The polysilicon industry is entering a capacity reduction cycle, with expectations of a slow recovery in 2025 as supply and demand dynamics improve [9]. - The company demonstrates strong cost control capabilities and robust financial strength, which are crucial for navigating the industry's downturn [9][10]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - The company reported a substantial loss in Q4 2024, with losses estimated between 1.5 billion to 2 billion yuan, primarily due to oversupply and significant price declines in the polysilicon market [9]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company recorded asset impairment losses of 1.367 billion yuan, with further impairments expected in Q4 [9]. Industry Outlook - The polysilicon industry is facing a supply surplus, leading to a drastic reduction in production from a peak of 189,500 tons to 103,800 tons by December 2024, a decrease of 45.22% [9]. - The industry is expected to operate at less than 50% capacity, with many major manufacturers reducing output [9]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of -2.701 billion yuan for 2024, with a recovery to 1.413 billion yuan in 2025 and 3.227 billion yuan in 2026 [10][12]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are -1.26 yuan for 2024, 0.66 yuan for 2025, and 1.50 yuan for 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 31.26 and 13.69 for 2025 and 2026, respectively [10][12].