社会服务行业2025年投资策略：政策导向明确，关注边际改善板块

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the social services sector, including Huangshan Tourism (600054.SH), Keri International (300662.SZ), and Lisheng Sports (002858.SZ) [73]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes a clear policy direction towards promoting consumption and expanding domestic demand, particularly in the tourism, human resources, and sports sectors [4][30]. - It highlights a shift in consumer behavior towards self-indulgent and service-oriented consumption, drawing parallels with Japan's consumption patterns as its labor force peaked [4][24][28]. - The tourism market is projected to maintain high growth rates, with domestic tourism numbers and revenue showing significant year-on-year increases [34][40]. - The human resources sector is identified as a strong cyclical industry, benefiting from macroeconomic recovery and increasing demand for flexible labor solutions [43][45]. - The sports industry is expected to accelerate in growth, with government plans to expand the sports sector significantly by 2025 [51][54]. Summary by Sections 2024 Industry Review - The social services sector saw varied performance, with tourism being the only sub-sector to show growth, increasing by 6.3%, while others like hospitality and education faced declines [13][16]. - The overall performance of the social services sector was below expectations, leading to slow business growth and poor market conditions [13][14]. 2025 Industry Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sectors with clear policy support and growth potential, particularly tourism, human resources, and sports [4][30]. - It outlines specific companies to watch, including Huangshan Tourism, Keri International, and Lisheng Sports, which are expected to benefit from favorable market conditions and policy support [4][62][66][70]. Consumer Market - Consumer preferences are shifting towards personalized and service-oriented spending, with service consumption currently accounting for approximately 52% of total consumption [28]. - The report notes that policies aimed at boosting consumption are becoming more defined, with various initiatives launched to stimulate demand in 2024 [30][31]. Tourism Industry - The domestic tourism market is projected to continue its growth trajectory, with significant increases in both the number of travelers and tourism revenue expected in 2024 [34][40]. - Despite the recovery, the tourism sector has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels, indicating room for further growth [37][39]. Human Resources Service Industry - The human resources sector is positioned as a key beneficiary of economic recovery, with increasing demand for flexible labor solutions as the economy stabilizes [43][45]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in the flexible labor market, which is still in its early stages in China compared to developed countries [49][50]. Sports Industry - The sports industry is set for significant expansion, with government plans to increase the sector's size to 5 trillion yuan by 2025 [51][54]. - The report emphasizes the integration of AI technology in sports, which is expected to enhance engagement and growth in the sector [72].