食品饮料行业周报：社零数据环比改善，关注旺季需求变化

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Recommended" for the food and beverage industry [4][26]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is expected to experience a turning point due to favorable policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, with a notable increase in retail sales leading up to the Spring Festival [4][26]. - The liquor segment, particularly white liquor, is anticipated to recover as consumer spending increases, with the industry currently in an adjustment phase and valuations at historically low levels, indicating medium to long-term investment value [4][26]. - The snack segment is showing strong performance, driven by new gifting scenarios and active sales channels, particularly during the festive season [4][26]. Summary by Relevant Sections Recent Market Performance - The food and beverage index increased by 2.10%, with the snack segment leading gains at +8.54%, followed by baked goods at +7.45% and other alcoholic beverages at +4.20%. In contrast, soft drinks saw a decline of -7.14% [8][26]. Key Industry Data - In December 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 45,172 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. Per capita spending on food, tobacco, and alcohol was 8,411 yuan, up 5.4%, accounting for 29.8% of total per capita consumption expenditure [20][17]. Company Recommendations - For the liquor sector, companies such as Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH), Wuliangye (000858.SZ), and Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH) are recommended for investment due to their potential for recovery and growth [4][26]. - In the snack category, companies like Three Squirrels (300783.SZ), Yanjinpuzi (002847.SZ), and Ganyuan Food (002991.SZ) are highlighted as having strong sales momentum [4][26]. - The dairy segment is expected to improve, with a recommendation for Yili (600887.SH) and New Dairy (002946.SZ) as the market stabilizes [4][26]. Price Trends - As of January 10, 2025, the price of fresh milk was 3.12 yuan per kilogram, indicating a recovery from previous declines [10][27]. Earnings Forecasts - The report includes earnings forecasts for key companies, with notable growth expected for Yanjin Beer, projecting a net profit increase of 55.11% to 70.62% for 2024 [24][27].