食品饮料行业深度研究：生鲜乳价格趋稳 乳品供需平衡可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [7] Core Viewpoints - The current downtrend in raw milk prices has been more severe than expected, leading to continuous pressure on the performance of listed dairy and livestock companies. However, since Q3 2024, there has been a gradual improvement in raw milk prices, indicating a potential recovery in the industry [6][18] - The supply-demand imbalance has been a significant challenge, with milk consumption growth slowing down post-pandemic, resulting in negative growth in 2022 and 2023. The report anticipates that the oversupply situation will gradually ease, leading to a more balanced supply-demand dynamic in 2025 [2][3][41] Summary by Sections 1. Raw Milk Price Downtrend and Performance Pressure - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas was 3.12 RMB/kg as of January 2, 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 14.80%. The current downtrend has lasted nearly three and a half years, with prices dropping by 28.77% from their peak [15][18] - The performance of listed dairy companies has been adversely affected, with significant inventory write-downs and credit impairment losses impacting profitability [20][21] 2. Review of Raw Milk Cycle - The report identifies three cycles in the domestic raw milk market, with the current cycle starting in mid-2021. The previous cycles were marked by significant events such as the melamine scandal and rapid import growth, which have shaped the industry's dynamics [30][31] - The current cycle has seen a substantial increase in milk production capacity, leading to an oversupply situation exacerbated by declining consumer demand [37][39] 3. Supply Reduction and Industry Recovery Outlook - The report indicates that the gap between raw milk supply and demand is beginning to narrow, with expectations for a gradual recovery in the industry as supply constraints take effect. The number of dairy cows has been decreasing, and the overall supply is projected to decline in 2024 [3][41] - The performance of listed dairy companies showed signs of marginal improvement in Q3 2024, with revenue declines slowing and net profit showing a slight increase compared to previous quarters [4][22] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies such as Yili and New Dairy Industry, which are expected to benefit from valuation recovery and ongoing performance improvements. The potential for dividend income is also highlighted as a key investment consideration [6][21]