软件与服务行业专题研究：美股科技股观察|24Q4业绩跟踪-台积电业绩强劲，AI需求高增长，未来五年指引乐观

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or the specific company analyzed [48]. Core Insights - TSMC reported strong Q4 earnings with revenue of NT$868.5 billion (YoY +38.8%), equivalent to USD 26.88 billion (YoY +37.0%), driven by robust demand for N3 and N5 processes [10][11]. - AI demand is strong, with advanced process revenue share rising to 74%. The revenue breakdown for Q4 shows HPC at 53%, smartphones at 35%, IoT at 5%, automotive at 4%, DCE at 1%, and others at 2% [18][27]. - The company expects a revenue growth of nearly 25% in 2025, with AI accelerator revenue projected to double, contributing nearly 15% to total revenue in 2024 [39]. Summary by Sections 1. Q4 Performance - TSMC's Q4 revenue reached NT$868.5 billion (USD 26.88 billion), with a net profit of USD 11.59 billion, reflecting a YoY increase of 51% [10][11]. - Gross margin improved to 59.0%, benefiting from higher capacity utilization and productivity [11]. 2. AI Demand and Advanced Process Revenue - Advanced process technology (7nm and below) accounted for 74% of wafer revenue, with N3 contributing 26% and N5 contributing 34% [27]. - HPC and smartphones are the primary revenue drivers, with significant growth in these segments [18]. 3. 2025 Guidance and Future Growth - TSMC anticipates Q1 2025 revenue between USD 25 billion and USD 25.8 billion, with a gross margin forecast of 57% to 59% [38]. - The company projects a CAGR of nearly 20% from 2025 to 2029, with AI accelerator revenue expected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 45% [39]. 4. Earnings Consensus and Valuation - Bloomberg consensus estimates for TSMC's revenue in 2025 and 2026 are USD 111.89 billion and USD 132.92 billion, respectively, with net profits of USD 47.20 billion and USD 56.35 billion [42].