CNOOC(600938) 东吴证券·2025-01-22 14:20Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A and H shares of China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) [1] Core Views - The company aims to continuously increase reserves and production while maintaining a stable capital expenditure and increasing dividend payout ratios [7] - CNOOC's net production target for 2025 is set at 760-780 million barrels of oil equivalent, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.6% to 8.3% [7] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% from 2025 to 2027 [7] - The report forecasts net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be RMB 150 billion, RMB 163.5 billion, and RMB 172.9 billion respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios for A shares of 8.8, 8.0, and 7.6 [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue for 2022 was RMB 422.23 billion, with projections of RMB 416.61 billion for 2023, RMB 445.78 billion for 2024, RMB 477.52 billion for 2025, and RMB 498.76 billion for 2026 [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2022 was RMB 141.7 billion, with forecasts of RMB 123.84 billion for 2023, RMB 150 billion for 2024, RMB 163.53 billion for 2025, and RMB 172.92 billion for 2026 [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be RMB 2.98 for 2022, RMB 2.61 for 2023, RMB 3.16 for 2024, RMB 3.44 for 2025, and RMB 3.64 for 2026 [1] Capital Expenditure and Projects - CNOOC plans to maintain a capital expenditure budget of RMB 125 billion to RMB 135 billion for 2025, with a focus on exploration, development, and production [7] - Significant new projects are expected to commence in 2025, including developments in Bohai and overseas projects in Guyana and Brazil [7]