CMOC(603993) 民生证券·2025-01-22 23:35Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index within the next 12 months [8][13]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.8-14.2 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 55.15%-72.12%. The non-recurring net profit is expected to be 12.4-13.8 billion yuan, with a growth of 98.94%-121.40% [3]. - The Q4 net profit is anticipated to be between 4.53-5.93 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year change of -22% to +2.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 59% to 108% [3]. - The core reasons for the profit exceeding expectations include the early recognition of sales from in-transit inventory and the normalization of the tax rate [3]. Production and Sales - For 2024, the company expects copper and cobalt production to reach 650,000 and 114,000 tons, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 55% and 106%. Molybdenum and tungsten production is projected at 15,400 and 8,300 tons, with changes of -2% and +4% [4]. - In Q4 2024, copper and cobalt production is expected to be 174,100 and 29,400 tons, with year-on-year growth of 30.6% and 61.2% [4]. - The company has confirmed a 20% sales right with a minority shareholder, which allows for earlier revenue recognition, thus reducing in-transit inventory [4]. Price and Taxation - The Q4 copper price is expected to be 75,500 yuan per ton, remaining stable quarter-on-quarter, while the cobalt price is projected at 16,300 yuan per ton, down 4.1% [4]. - The tax rate is expected to normalize to a range of 35-40% in Q4, contributing to increased profits [4]. Future Outlook - The company has set a conservative production guidance for 2025, with copper production expected to be 600,000-660,000 tons and cobalt at 100,000-120,000 tons [5]. - The company aims to enter the ranks of top global mining companies within five years, targeting annual production of 800,000-1,000,000 tons of copper and 90,000-100,000 tons of cobalt [5]. - Profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are 13.32 billion, 13.80 billion, and 14.48 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.62, 0.64, and 0.67 yuan [5][7].