Workflow
商贸零售行业12月社零数据点评：24年社零同比+3.5%，全年呈V型走势
Yong Xing Zheng Quan·2025-01-23 01:36

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail industry [5] Core Views - In December 2024, China's total retail sales reached 4.52 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, indicating a V-shaped recovery throughout the year [1] - The online retail sales for 2024 are projected to be 15.52 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2% year-on-year, with physical goods online retail sales accounting for 26.8% of total retail sales [2] - December's retail sales growth for goods outperformed that of the catering sector, with goods retailing at 39,623 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [3] - Essential consumption categories like food and beverages showed significant growth, while discretionary consumption exhibited mixed performance [4] Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - In 2024, total retail sales are expected to reach 48.79 trillion yuan, growing by 3.5%, with non-automotive retail sales at 43.76 trillion yuan, increasing by 3.8% [1] - Quarterly breakdown for 2024 shows retail sales growth of 4.7% in Q1, 2.6% in Q2, 2.7% in Q3, and 3.8% in Q4, indicating a gradual recovery [1] E-commerce and Offline Retail - The e-commerce penetration rate is stabilizing, with online retail sales of physical goods growing by 6.5% year-on-year [2] - Offline retail sales are projected to be 35.71 trillion yuan in 2024, with convenience stores and specialty stores showing strong performance [2] Consumer Spending Trends - In December, essential goods like grain and oil saw a retail sales increase of 9.9%, while tobacco and alcohol grew by 10.4% [4] - Discretionary categories like home appliances and communication equipment showed strong growth, with year-on-year increases of 39.3% and 14.0% respectively [4] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies in the gold and jewelry sector, as well as traditional supermarkets undergoing reform and upgrades [5] - Specific companies recommended for attention include Lao Feng Xiang, Zhou Da Sheng, and Gao Xin Retail [5]