英大证券：金点策略晨报-20250123

Core Views - The short-term rebound in the real estate sector is primarily due to a leading company's announcement regarding interest payments on a bond, alleviating market concerns about potential debt defaults [2][5] - The domestic real estate market shows signs of sales recovery, supported by economic stabilization measures implemented in September 2024, which have boosted buyer confidence [2][5] - The Ministry of Finance plans to promote local government special bonds for land and commodity housing purchases in 2025, contributing to a recovery in the real estate market and stabilizing asset prices [2][5] - The high growth cycle of the real estate industry may have passed, suggesting a focus on financially stable and high-quality real estate companies for potential mergers and acquisitions [2][5] - Concerns remain regarding the demand for upstream energy and steel, as the market anticipates uncertainty in real estate investment [2][5] Market Overview - On the trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3242.62 points, down 1.76 points, with a trading volume of 468.26 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10305.69 points, up 49.29 points, with a trading volume of 736.97 billion yuan [4] - A total of 1983 A-shares rose, while 3255 fell, indicating a cautious market sentiment ahead of the holiday [4][7] Sector Performance - The sectors that performed well included electronics, communications, real estate, machinery equipment, and automobiles, while the sectors with the largest declines were oil and petrochemicals, steel, coal, social services, and textiles [4] - The real estate sector showed significant activity, driven by the aforementioned bond payment announcement, which helped stabilize related stock and bond prices [5] Currency and Economic Factors - The recent decline in the US dollar index has led to appreciation in non-US currencies like the yuan and yen, while commodity prices for gold and oil have not seen significant increases [5] - The People's Bank of China has implemented measures to stabilize the exchange rate, which may alleviate depreciation pressure on the yuan and positively impact the A-share market [5]