东兴证券：东兴晨报-20250123

Group 1: Macro Analysis - The inaugural speech of the new US president was more rational than expected, with illegal immigration and inflation as top priorities [3] - The pace of tariff policy is slower than market expectations, but this does not imply a weaker final implementation [3] - Inflation pressure in the US is slightly reduced compared to the end of last year, but remains at a certain level [3] - The outlook for US stocks is neutral to slightly positive [3] - Global economic fundamentals will have a greater impact on oil prices [3] Group 2: Banking Industry - The scale of bank wealth management is expected to approach 30 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, with a steady growth trend [4][6] - Wealth management funds are shifting from bank deposits to interbank certificates of deposit due to regulatory adjustments and declining deposit rates [4][6] - Fixed income products account for 97.3% of the total wealth management products, with open-ended products increasing to 80.8% [8][9] - The average yield of wealth management products in 2024 is projected to be 2.65%, a year-on-year decrease of 29 basis points [10] Group 3: Retail Industry - The total retail sales in 2024 are expected to grow steadily, with a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [14][15] - Essential consumption remains stable, while discretionary categories show mixed performance [15][16] - Online retail sales are growing faster than offline, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2% [17] Group 4: Logistics Industry - In December, the national express delivery business volume reached 17.8 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 22.3% [19][20] - The average price per delivery in December decreased by 13.6% year-on-year, indicating ongoing price competition [21] - The first three weeks of the new year saw significant growth in delivery volume, driven by government subsidies [22] Group 5: Agriculture and Livestock Industry - In December, the average price of live pigs was 16.64 yuan/kg, with a year-on-year increase of 10.91% for the entire year [24][25] - The supply of pigs is expected to remain sufficient, with slaughter rates increasing [24] - Major listed companies in the pig farming sector are forecasting significant profit growth for 2024 [27] Group 6: Food and Beverage Industry - Fuling Mustard, a leading company in the pickled vegetable industry, is undergoing reforms that are expected to drive growth [29][30] - The company is focusing on refining its business direction and enhancing its product offerings [30] - Long-term trends indicate that price growth will continue to be a driving force for industry growth [30]