东海证券：晨会纪要-20250123

Group 1: Smartphone Industry - Global smartphone shipments in Q4 2024 increased by 2.4% year-on-year, reaching 331.7 million units, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of growth. The total shipments for 2024 reached 1.24 billion units, a 6.4% increase year-on-year, indicating a resilient recovery after two challenging years [7][6][8] - Domestic smartphone shipments in China for Q4 2024 were approximately 76.43 million units, up 3.9% year-on-year, with a total of 286 million units for the year, reflecting a 5.6% increase year-on-year. The market is expected to continue its growth trend in 2025, supported by government consumption subsidy policies [8][6][7] - Major players in the smartphone market include Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi, Vivo, and Huawei, with domestic manufacturers capturing 56% of the global market share in Q4 2024. The demand for foldable phones has decreased, leading manufacturers to shift focus towards AI functionalities [7][8] Group 2: New Energy Industry - The photovoltaic sector saw a 5.9% increase in stock prices, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.76 percentage points. The wind power equipment sector also rose by 3.42% [12][13] - Silicon wafer production is expected to rise, with upstream prices stabilizing. The production of silicon wafers is projected to maintain around 46 GW in January, with integrated companies sustaining high operating rates due to attractive profit levels [13][12] - The wind power sector is experiencing significant growth, with an estimated 165.88 GW of onshore wind power and 12.05 GW of offshore wind power tendered in 2024. The total installed capacity for wind power is expected to reach 105-115 GW in 2025, indicating a strong demand for wind power equipment [16][18] Group 3: Market Performance - The electronic industry outperformed the broader market, with the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's electronic index rising by 4.08%, compared to a 2.14% increase in the CSI 300 index. The overall performance of the electronic sector ranked 12th among primary industries [10][11] - The semiconductor sector saw a 4.08% increase, while electronic components and optical electronics also experienced gains of 2.80% and 4.57%, respectively [10][11] - The A-share market showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down by 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index both recorded gains [25][26]