中国海油：保持稳健资本开支，未来三年全年股息支付率不低于45%

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][8] Core Viewpoints - The company aims to achieve a net production target of 760-780 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2025, with a capital expenditure budget of RMB 125-135 billion [3][5] - The company maintains a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% for the years 2025-2027, an increase from the previous 40% policy [7][13] - The company focuses on exploring and developing large and medium-sized oil and gas fields, with significant projects underway both domestically and internationally [6][11] Summary by Sections Production and Capital Expenditure - The company expects to complete a net production of approximately 720 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [4] - The capital expenditure for 2025 is budgeted at RMB 125-135 billion, with exploration, development, and production capitalized expected to account for approximately 16%, 61%, and 20% of the total budget respectively [5][10] Exploration and Development - The company is focused on finding large and medium-sized oil and gas fields, ensuring stable oil reserves through reasonable exploration investments [6][11] - Key projects include the development of the Bohai Zhong 26-6 oil field and the Yellowtail project in Guyana, with the Eastern 29-1 gas field project already in production [6][12] Technology and ESG Initiatives - The company emphasizes technological innovation and green development, aiming to integrate smart oil and gas field construction with AI technologies [7][12] - It plans to increase its renewable energy capacity, targeting over 1 billion kWh of green electricity consumption in 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 30% [7][12] Shareholder Returns - The company is committed to enhancing shareholder returns, with a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% for 2025-2027, reflecting a focus on sharing development results with shareholders [7][13] Financial Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of RMB 149.8 billion, 156.4 billion, and 163.3 billion for 2024-2026, with corresponding EPS of 3.15, 3.29, and 3.43 respectively [8][15]