食品饮料行业深度：迎东风，看改善

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the food and beverage sector significantly underperformed the broader market in 2024, with a decline of 7.38% compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which outperformed by 23.59 percentage points [8][14] - The overall revenue and profit growth of the industry showed a downward trend throughout 2024, with increasing operational risks [33] - The macroeconomic outlook for 2025 is positive, with expectations for more aggressive fiscal policies and moderate monetary easing to support domestic economic growth [11][12] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Focus on bottom-up stock investment opportunities, particularly in the snack and soft drink sectors, which are less affected by economic cycles, as well as in condiments, dairy, and beer sectors benefiting from consumption stimulus policies [12][13] - Specific recommendations include leading companies in the snack sector like Wanchen Group and Jinzhai Foods, and in the soft drink sector, Eastroc Beverage is highlighted for its potential global expansion [12][13] 2024 Industry Market Performance - The food and beverage sector index underperformed the market, with a notable decline of 7.38% as of December 26, 2024 [14][15] - The sector's performance was characterized by a significant drop in the first three quarters, with a peak decline exceeding 25% [14][15] 2024 Industry Fundamentals - The overall revenue growth for the food and beverage sector showed a quarterly decline, with Q1-3 growth rates of +6.81%, -0.15%, and -1.41% respectively [33] - The profit growth also declined, with net profit growth rates of +14.37%, +8.19%, and +2.97% for the same quarters [33] 2025 Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in consumer confidence and spending due to expected government policies aimed at stimulating consumption [11][12] - Different segments within the industry are expected to recover at varying rates, with mass-market products likely to rebound before premium segments like liquor [11][12] Cost and Profitability - Cost advantages have persisted throughout the year, leading to an increase in gross margins, while the sales expense ratio has slightly increased due to heightened competition [39][40] - The report notes that most raw material prices have been on a downward trend, contributing to improved profitability for many segments [39][46]