Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market" with the rating maintained [1][6]. Core Viewpoints - The main industry chain performance is expected to improve, with accelerated application of new technologies [6]. - Capital expenditure growth is slowing, and profits are expected to bottom out and recover [5][19]. - Demand for batteries is projected to maintain moderate growth in 2025, driven by the increasing market share of new energy vehicles and energy storage installations [5][20][29]. Summary by Sections Market and Performance Review - The battery index has slightly outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a year-to-date increase of 19.11% compared to 16.16% for the CSI 300 [10]. - The battery sector's revenue growth has declined significantly, with a 2023 growth rate of 1.97% and a further drop to -13.27% in Q1-Q3 2024 [12][19]. Demand Side - New energy vehicles accounted for 40.3% of total new car sales in China from January to November 2024, with a year-on-year production and sales growth of 34.6% and 35.6% respectively [21][20]. - The new energy storage installation scale is expected to reach 184.2 GWh in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 147.5% [25][28]. Supply Side - The prices of various battery materials are stabilizing after a period of decline, with expectations for relative stability in 2025 [43][45]. - The production capacity utilization rates for key materials such as anode materials and electrolytes are showing signs of recovery [50][51]. New Technologies - Solid-state batteries are identified as having disruptive potential, with full commercialization expected by 2027 [60][64]. - The development of solid-state electrolytes is crucial for the successful application of solid-state batteries, with sulfide electrolytes being the most promising [64].
新能源电池行业深度：主产业链业绩有望改善，新技术应用加速
Caixin Securities·2025-01-23 05:55