农林牧渔行业：原奶周期专题一：供给收缩趋势明确，左侧布局正当时

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - The supply contraction trend is clear, and it is a good time for left-side layout [6] - The domestic raw milk supply still requires import supplementation, with imports accounting for about 20% [6] - The core of domestic supply lies in the number of dairy cows and yield levels, while imports depend on domestic and foreign price differences [6] - A supply turning point is gradually emerging, with a new cycle expected to begin in 2025 [6] - The investment suggestion emphasizes that the supply contraction trend is clear, and the industry is expected to benefit from the upcoming price cycle [6] Summary by Sections 1. High Degree of Industry Chain Scale, Domestic Raw Milk Supply Requires Import Supplementation - The raw milk industry is positioned upstream in the dairy product supply chain, with upstream farms selling raw milk to processing enterprises [15] - Domestic milk production has steadily increased, with a 36.5% growth from 2018 to 2023 [19] - Currently, about 20% of the domestic fresh milk supply needs to be supplemented by imported powder [19] 2. Supply Turning Point Gradually Emerging, New Cycle Expected in 2025 - The current downward cycle has lasted over three years, with a price adjustment depth greater than previous cycles [53] - As of December 2024, the cumulative reduction in dairy cow inventory is 4.55% [58] - The domestic raw milk price has fallen to around 3.12 CNY/kg, with social scattered milk prices dropping below cash cost lines [58] 3. Investment Recommendations - The supply contraction trend is clear, and the industry is expected to benefit from the upcoming price cycle [6] - Key companies to focus on include Modern Farming (01117.HK), Youran Agriculture (09858.HK), and Western Farming [6]