2024年12月快递月报：2024年快递需求表现较好，旺季量价平稳

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The express delivery industry is expected to see a volume of 17.21 billion pieces in December 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.6% [7][10] - The e-commerce express delivery segment shows strong performance, with major companies like YTO, Yunda, and Shentong reporting revenue growth rates of 16.8%, 7.4%, and 22.1% respectively [3] - SF Express has demonstrated robust revenue growth, with total revenue reaching 26.437 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.3% [4] Summary by Sections Express Delivery Industry - The total express delivery volume for December 2024 is projected at 17.21 billion pieces, with a year-on-year increase of 21.6% [10] - The industry revenue is expected to reach 134.54 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.1% year-on-year growth [10] - The average price per piece is estimated at 7.82 yuan, down 2.9% year-on-year [10] Major Companies Performance - YTO Express: Revenue of 6.044 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 16.8% and a volume of 2.645 billion pieces, growing by 23.5% [3] - Yunda Express: Revenue of 4.696 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 7.4% and a volume of 2.319 billion pieces, growing by 18.9% [3] - Shentong Express: Revenue of 4.551 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 22.1% and a volume of 2.252 billion pieces, growing by 31.7% [3] - SF Express: Total revenue of 26.437 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 12.3% and a volume of 1.35 billion pieces, growing by 19.5% [4] Market Outlook - The demand for express delivery is expected to remain strong in 2025, supported by policy benefits and increasing demand for small items and returns [5] - The competitive landscape is anticipated to be stronger than in 2024, but less intense than in 2020, with a focus on healthy price competition [5] - Long-term investment potential is seen in the positive externalities of express delivery and the favorable market structure [5]