ZJJH(600160) 申万宏源·2025-01-23 06:08Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see a continuous uptrend in refrigerant prices and volumes, with Q4 2024 performance meeting expectations. The refrigerant business is anticipated to benefit significantly from price increases, outweighing the negative impacts from non-refrigerant segments [6][5] - The company forecasts a substantial increase in net profit for 2024, with an expected growth rate of 98% to 123% year-on-year, driven primarily by the refrigerant business [6] - The company maintains a positive outlook for 2025, with expectations of continued high demand and price increases in the refrigerant market [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 20,655 million, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%. However, revenue is expected to rebound to 21,237 million in 2024, with a growth rate of 2.8% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 944 million for 2023, with a significant increase to 1,950 million in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 106.7% [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 0.35 in 2023 to 0.72 in 2024, and further to 1.54 in 2025 [5] - The gross profit margin is projected to improve from 13.2% in 2023 to 18.9% in 2024, and reach 27.2% in 2025 [5] Segment Performance - The refrigerant segment is expected to see a significant increase in both volume and price, with Q4 2024 external sales volume rising by 60% year-on-year [6] - The petrochemical materials segment is also expected to show growth, although average prices have declined [6] - The fluorinated polymer segment is experiencing a decrease in profitability due to falling prices, despite an increase in sales volume [6]