中国太保：业绩高速增长，价值稳定提升

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A/Buy-H" rating for the company, with a current price of CNY 31.29 and HKD 22.35, and a fair value of CNY 41.92 and HKD 31.59 [4]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant profit growth in 2024, with a projected net profit of CNY 422-463 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 55%-70%. This growth is driven by a rising equity market and a low profit base from 2023 [8]. - The report anticipates stable growth in intrinsic value, with an expected increase of 6.9% in 2024, despite potential downward adjustments in investment return assumptions due to declining long-term interest rates [8]. - The company is expected to maintain a robust performance in its insurance services, with stable growth in premium income across various channels, including individual insurance and group insurance [9][10]. Financial Forecasts - The report provides detailed financial forecasts for the company from 2022 to 2026, including: - Intrinsic value (CNY million): 519,621 in 2022, projected to grow to 681,436 by 2026, with a CAGR of 9.84% [2]. - New business value (CNY million): Expected to increase from 9,205 in 2022 to 15,825 by 2026 [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders (CNY million): Forecasted to rise from 37,481 in 2022 to 48,827 by 2026, with a notable increase of 66.36% in 2024 [2]. - EPS (CNY): Expected to grow from 2.56 in 2022 to 5.08 by 2026 [2]. Premium Income Projections - The report outlines premium income projections, indicating: - New individual insurance premiums are expected to grow at rates of +11.4% in 2024, +7.8% in 2025, and +11.9% in 2026 [9]. - The total premium income growth is projected at +1.3% in 2024, +7.1% in 2025, and +7.7% in 2026 [9][14]. Profitability and Valuation - The report highlights profitability metrics, including: - The company's net profit growth rates are projected at +66.4% in 2024, +1.2% in 2025, and +6.4% in 2026 [10]. - The report assigns a PEV valuation of 0.65X for A-shares and 0.45X for H-shares, with a fair value of CNY 41.92 per share and HKD 31.59 per share [12].