中国城市燃气行业展望，2025年1月

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable outlook for the Chinese urban gas industry, indicating that the overall credit quality of the industry is not expected to undergo significant changes in the next 12-18 months [2][36]. Core Viewpoints - The global natural gas market is expected to remain in a state of overall balance, with international natural gas prices stabilizing at relatively low levels. The recovery of imported gas and the continued role of domestic gas as a stabilizing factor are anticipated to support the profitability of domestic urban gas companies [2][36]. - The demand for natural gas in China is projected to grow significantly, driven by industrial use and urban gas consumption, with total natural gas consumption expected to reach between 4,300 billion cubic meters and 4,500 billion cubic meters by 2025 [11][36]. - The industry is characterized by a stable upstream, midstream, and downstream structure, with ongoing adjustments in pricing policies and a trend towards resource optimization and standardized operations [21][36]. Summary by Sections Analysis Approach - The report analyzes the impact of global natural gas supply and demand changes on China's gas imports, summarizing domestic supply patterns, demand changes, and the construction of gas pipeline and storage facilities [5]. Industry Fundamentals - The global natural gas market is expected to remain balanced in 2024, with stable international prices. The demand in Asia is recovering, leading to a projected 2.3% increase in global natural gas demand in 2025 [6][10]. - Domestic natural gas consumption is expected to return to a high growth trajectory, with a 9.9% year-on-year increase in consumption from January to September 2024 [11][36]. Industry Financial Performance - The profitability of urban gas companies is expected to improve further in 2024, supported by the implementation of pricing policies and a recovery in demand. The overall financial leverage of the industry remains stable [26][36]. - In 2023, sample companies in the urban gas sector saw a slight increase in net profit by 10.77%, despite challenges in connection business volumes [28][36]. Conclusion - The report concludes that the urban gas industry in China is expected to maintain a stable outlook, with a balanced supply-demand relationship and improved profitability for urban gas companies in the coming years [36].