2024年宏观经济及大类资产配置分析与2025年展望：筑底企稳、稳中求进的中国经济

Economic Overview - In 2024, China's GDP growth is projected to reach 5%, with quarterly growth rates of 5.3%, 4.7%, 4.6%, and 5.4% respectively, indicating a "U" shaped recovery[3][16]. - The nominal GDP growth rate for 2024 is estimated at 4.2%, remaining stable compared to 2023, but still below the actual growth due to a negative GDP deflator of -0.8%[16][36]. Structural Characteristics - The contribution of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries to GDP growth in 2024 is 5.2%, 38.6%, and 56.2% respectively, with the tertiary sector continuing to dominate[20]. - Final consumption's contribution to GDP growth has decreased from 85.6% in 2023 to 44.5% in 2024, reflecting weak domestic demand[20]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth is projected at 3.2% in 2024, with manufacturing investment increasing by 9.2%, while real estate investment is expected to decline by 10.6%[31]. - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) is expected to grow by 4.4%, showing signs of marginal improvement in the fourth quarter[31]. External Trade - Exports are anticipated to grow by 5.9% in 2024, significantly contributing to economic growth, with a notable increase in exports to ASEAN and Belt and Road countries[34]. - The trade surplus is projected to remain robust, with a focus on maintaining export competitiveness despite external pressures[34]. Price Levels and Inflation - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to grow by 0.2% in 2024, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) remains in negative territory at -2.2%[36]. - Industrial profits are projected to decline by 4.7%, indicating ongoing pressure from low price levels on corporate earnings[36]. Employment and Demographics - The urban unemployment rate is expected to improve slightly to 5.12% in 2024, with a rebound in birth rates observed for the first time since 2017[41]. - These demographic trends are seen as positive indicators for long-term economic stability and growth potential[41]. Policy Recommendations - The economic growth target for 2025 is suggested to be around 5%, with a focus on maintaining consistency between macroeconomic and non-economic policies[8]. - Emphasis on counter-cyclical adjustments and structural reforms is crucial to support economic recovery and growth in the coming years[8].