寻找景气复苏的周期行业之十三：乙二醇

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the basic chemical industry, specifically for ethylene glycol [5]. Core Viewpoints - The profitability of ethylene glycol is expected to continue improving, driven by a significant reduction in new supply and stable demand growth from the downstream polyester industry [10][34]. - Ethylene glycol prices are projected to rise due to a reversal in supply-demand dynamics, with effective production capacity utilization expected to increase from 63% in 2023 to over 80% by 2026 [7][13]. - The report highlights that the price of ethylene glycol needs to reach 5800 RMB/ton for high-cost oil-based production to become viable again, indicating a potential long-term upward price trend [50][53]. Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - Ethylene glycol prices fell to around 4000 RMB/ton in late 2022 but are expected to rebound significantly in 2024 due to supply constraints and demand recovery [10]. 2. Ethylene Glycol Supply-Demand Reversal - The report notes a drastic reduction in ethylene glycol supply due to long-term losses, with only 300,000 tons of new capacity expected in 2024, while polyester capacity is projected to increase by nearly 6 million tons [7][13]. - The report emphasizes that the domestic ethylene glycol market is experiencing a significant supply-demand imbalance, with a forecasted increase in effective production capacity utilization [12][34]. 3. Price Increase Potential - The report discusses the conditions under which ethylene glycol prices will rise, particularly focusing on the recovery of high-cost oil-based production and the need for prices to exceed 5800 RMB/ton for production viability [41][50]. - It is noted that the coal-based production route has achieved profitability, but the revival of long-stopped capacities remains challenging [42][50]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with resilient earnings in ethylene glycol production, including Satellite Chemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical, and others, as they are well-positioned to benefit from rising prices [3][56].