计算机行业周度点评：重视国产算力和推理算力

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the computer industry [2] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing U.S. AI computing power restrictions and the importance of domestic computing power, suggesting that the domestic AI chip industry will experience rapid growth due to increased government support and investment [7][13] - There is a notable increase in monthly active users for AI applications, particularly within ByteDance's ecosystem, indicating a growing demand for inference computing power [14][17] - The report highlights the performance of the computer industry, with the Shenwan Computer Index outperforming major indices during the reporting period [19][20] Summary by Sections Industry Views - The U.S. government has intensified AI computing power export restrictions, particularly targeting China, which is expected to accelerate domestic AI chip development [11][12] - Monthly active users of AI applications have shown significant growth, with ByteDance's Doubao reaching 71.16 million, a year-on-year increase of 18.64% [14][17] - The report suggests focusing on domestic inference computing power, as there is a growing need for it in complex scenarios like image and video generation [17] Market Performance - During the reporting period from January 6 to January 17, 2025, the Shenwan Computer Index rose by 4.75%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.80 percentage points [19][20] - All sub-indices within the computer sector saw increases, with IT services and software development indices rising by 5.63% and 5.83%, respectively [20][22] - Among individual stocks, Geer Software, Tonghuashun, and Guanghuan Xinwang had the highest gains, with increases of 24.68%, 13.08%, and 10.94% respectively [24] Valuation Situation - As of January 17, 2025, the Shenwan Computer Index's PE-TTM (excluding negative values) stands at 44.53 times, placing it in the 28.72 percentile of the past decade [26] - The relative valuation premium of the Shenwan Computer Index over the CSI 300 Index is 3.76 times, which is in the 37.70 percentile of the last ten years [26] Major Industry News - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang discussed the ongoing development of silicon photonics technology, indicating it will take several years to mature [29] - Nvidia is expected to launch a new CPO switch in March 2025, which is currently in trial production [30][31] - Marvell has made significant advancements in CPO technology for custom AI accelerators, which could enhance server performance [35]