中国环保运营行业展望，2025年1月

Investment Rating - The report rates the environmental operation industry as stable, with specific segments rated as follows: waste incineration power generation is stable, hazardous waste disposal is negative, and agricultural and forestry biomass power generation is stable but weakening [7]. Core Insights - The solid waste treatment industry is a crucial part of the environmental sector, focusing on urban household waste, hazardous waste, and agricultural biomass disposal. The industry is expected to achieve more efficient, environmentally friendly, and sustainable development due to increasing governmental emphasis on environmental protection and continuous innovation in waste treatment technologies [6][10]. - The growth of urban household waste treatment is uneven across regions, with significant potential for growth in underdeveloped areas. The waste incineration sector is entering a post-operation era, focusing on improving operational capabilities and expanding into new markets, including overseas [8][11]. - The hazardous waste disposal sector is experiencing overcapacity and ongoing price wars, with a return to normalcy expected to take time. The agricultural and forestry biomass power generation sector faces challenges due to policy rollbacks and business model issues, necessitating government support for sustainable development [6][25]. Summary by Sections Industry Fundamentals - The urban household waste treatment rate in China is high, with nearly 100% of waste being treated harmlessly. However, growth is concentrated in the less developed central and western regions. The total urban household waste collection volume reached 25.407 million tons in 2023, with an annual growth rate of 2.19% [11][12]. - The waste incineration method has become increasingly dominant, accounting for 82.49% of total waste treatment in 2023. The "waste-free city" initiative has seen significant investment, with over 3,200 projects planned, totaling over 1 trillion yuan [12][13]. Financial Performance - Waste incineration companies have seen improvements in profitability and cash flow, while hazardous waste disposal companies face a divided profitability landscape, with some experiencing losses. Agricultural biomass power generation companies often rely on debt for daily operations, making it difficult to reduce financial leverage [8][10]. - The hazardous waste disposal market is characterized by a large number of small players, leading to intense competition and price wars. The average disposal fee for hazardous waste has significantly decreased, with some regions seeing prices drop by over 50% [25][29]. Conclusion - The report emphasizes that the waste incineration sector is maturing, with a focus on resource integration and operational efficiency rather than merely acquiring new projects. The leading companies are increasingly engaging in mergers and acquisitions to strengthen their market positions [24][33]. - The hazardous waste disposal industry is expected to see a gradual return to normalcy, but overcapacity and price competition remain significant challenges. The agricultural biomass power generation sector requires policy support to reduce reliance on subsidies and achieve self-sustaining growth [34][35].