中国担保行业，2025年1月

Investment Rating - The outlook for the Chinese guarantee industry is stable, reflecting the expected basic credit status over the next 12 to 18 months [5][41]. Core Insights - The direct financing guarantee business balance is expected to face growth pressure in 2025, with a shift towards a more diverse range of guarantee bond types and entities, although state-owned enterprises will remain the primary clients in the short term [5][15]. - The overall compensation scale of guarantee companies may increase due to the expansion of policy-based guarantee business and the rising risk-sharing ratio of original guarantee institutions, while the cumulative compensation rate is expected to remain relatively stable [5][27]. - The capital strength of guarantee companies is continuously improving, leading to a stable overall credit level in the guarantee industry [5][41]. Summary by Sections Analysis Approach - The credit analysis of the guarantee industry is primarily influenced by policy trends and industry dynamics, assessing the future business environment for guarantee companies [8]. Industry Policy - Since 2024, central policies supporting small and micro enterprises and agriculture have remained unchanged, with local policies being tailored to enhance specificity and precision [9][10]. Industry Development Status - The number of financing guarantee institutions has been declining for 11 consecutive years, with state-owned institutions accounting for 61.5% of the total [12][13]. - The balance of guarantee business has shown growth, but the growth rate has slowed significantly due to structural adjustments [13][15]. Industry Financial Performance - The capital strength of guarantee companies is crucial for determining their compensation limits, with ongoing enhancements expected as they focus on their primary responsibilities [34][36]. - The overall liquidity risk of guarantee companies is low, although some companies may face liquidity shocks due to high investment asset scales [27][40].