国君交运|春运首周逐日增长,航空客流增速领跑

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation industry, highlighting optimistic long-term prospects and recovery trends in 2024 and 2025 [1]. Core Insights - The Chinese aviation industry is expected to turn profitable in 2024, with a confirmed recovery trend in supply and demand by 2025. The market's low expectations present significant opportunities for growth [1]. - The Spring Festival travel demand is robust, which is likely to catalyze optimistic expectations for demand and revenue management strategies [1]. - The report notes that oil prices and exchange rates do not alter the long-term value of airlines, potentially providing contrarian investment opportunities [1]. Summary by Sections Passenger Flow - During the first week of the Spring Festival in 2025, the average daily passenger volume for civil aviation reached approximately 2.21 million, representing an 8% year-on-year increase and a 26% increase compared to the same period in 2019 [2]. - The report anticipates limited domestic flight additions, focusing on structural adjustments to meet Spring Festival demand, while international routes are expected to see significant growth due to recovery effects and additional flights [2]. Ticket Pricing - Airlines are actively managing revenue, with estimates indicating that the average ticket price during the first week of the Spring Festival is expected to remain stable compared to 2019 [3]. - The report highlights that domestic passenger load factors have increased year-on-year, and the estimated domestic ticket prices are close to those of 2019, despite a 6% decrease in fuel surcharges [3].