锡行业月报：2024年供给小于需求带动大幅去库，锡价震荡上行

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [6][68]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the supply of tin will be less than demand in 2024, leading to significant inventory reduction and an upward trend in tin prices. The main growth in supply is expected from the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of tin ingot exports from Indonesia. Traditional demand from home appliances, consumer electronics, and photovoltaic sectors, along with new demand from electric vehicles and AI, is anticipated to drive growth, maintaining a tight balance in the tin market [6][57]. Summary by Sections 1. Tin Ore - In December, China imported 4,244 tons of tin concentrate, a decrease of 351 tons (-7.6%) month-on-month and 1,721 tons (-28.9%) year-on-year. The total for the year was 63,346 tons, down 12,370 tons (-16.3%) year-on-year. Imports from Myanmar were 15,286 tons, down 20,814 tons (-57.7%), while imports from the Democratic Republic of Congo were 23,925 tons, up 4,724 tons (+24.6%) [3][16]. 2. Refined Tin - December refined tin production was 16,241 tons, down 4.4% month-on-month but up 3.5% year-on-year. The total production for the year was 183,884 tons, an increase of 14,947 tons (+8.8%). Imports in December were 2,990 tons, down 15% month-on-month and 39.6% year-on-year, with total imports for the year at 21,614 tons, down 11,857 tons (-35.4%) [4][22][27]. 3. Downstream Demand - The report highlights that downstream demand remains strong, with December production of integrated circuits reaching 42.8 billion pieces, up 13.97% month-on-month and 18.39% year-on-year. The total for the year was 451.4 billion pieces, up 28.44% year-on-year. Production of electric vehicles in December was 1.647 million units, up 4.6% month-on-month and 43.2% year-on-year, with a total of 13.168 million units for the year, up 39.4% year-on-year [5][42][44]. 4. Supply and Price - The apparent consumption of tin in December was 17,100 tons, down 10% month-on-month and 13.4% year-on-year. Global visible inventory as of December 27 was 11,465 tons, a decrease of 6,341 tons (-35.6%) year-on-year. Tin prices as of December 31 were $28,900 per ton, up $3,725 (+14.8%) year-on-year, while domestic prices were 245,800 yuan per ton, up 34,200 yuan (+16.2%) year-on-year [5][52][55]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Tin Industry Co., Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, and Xingye Silver Tin, as the tin market is expected to maintain a tight balance with potential price increases due to ongoing demand from traditional and new sectors [6][57].