中国旅游行业展望，2025年1月

Investment Rating - The outlook for the tourism industry is maintained as "stable" with expectations that the overall credit quality will not undergo significant changes in the next 12 to 18 months [4][5]. Core Insights - The domestic tourism market has shown steady revenue growth since 2024, with inbound tourism recovering well due to favorable policies. However, uncertainties in macroeconomic growth and consumer recovery pose challenges for further growth in the tourism sector [5][6]. - The tourism industry has entered a normalization phase, with diverse leisure travel methods emerging and a steady increase in domestic tourism revenue. The overall development of the tourism industry is expected to remain supported despite economic headwinds [4][6]. - The hotel industry is facing pressure with declining occupancy rates and average room prices, while the integration and brand consolidation within the industry are expected to continue [5][27]. Summary by Sections Industry Fundamentals - Since 2024, the tourism industry has transitioned into a normalization phase, with domestic tourism revenue surpassing 2019 levels. Inbound tourism has also benefited from supportive policies, although challenges remain due to low consumer confidence and economic recovery [7][8]. - The tourism sector includes transportation (OTA and offline travel agencies), attractions, and accommodation, with significant growth potential driven by the large population and rising income levels [7][8]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the tourism industry has shifted from rapid recovery to stable growth, with varying recovery rates across different sub-sectors. The overall profitability and cash flow of tourism enterprises have improved, although debt levels have slightly increased [40][43]. - The sample of tourism enterprises shows that revenue growth is more pronounced in medium-sized enterprises, while some scenic area operators have experienced slight declines in revenue due to reduced visitor numbers [43]. Policy Environment - Recent policies have significantly boosted the tourism industry, with a focus on enhancing tourism product quality and promoting innovative tourism experiences. The government has introduced various measures to facilitate tourism development, including the "Smart Tourism Innovation Development Action Plan" [16][17]. - The emphasis on integrating tourism with other sectors, such as culture and sports, aims to create new consumption scenarios and stimulate growth in the tourism market [16][17]. Scenic Area Operations - Scenic areas have seen increased visitor numbers, but face challenges such as intense competition and low conversion rates of individual visitors. Many scenic areas are implementing ticket discounts to attract visitors and stimulate secondary consumption [22][26]. - The quality of scenic areas is a critical factor influencing their operations, with a noticeable differentiation in market influence among various scenic spots [22][23]. Hotel Industry - The hotel industry is under pressure due to increased supply and declining average room rates and occupancy rates. High-end and chain hotels are better positioned to withstand these challenges [27][32]. - The hotel market is experiencing significant regional disparities, with a growing trend towards brand consolidation and increased chain hotel rates [28][32]. OTA and Travel Agencies - The OTA sector has shown strong growth, benefiting from the overall recovery of the tourism market and the revitalization of inbound and outbound tourism. The performance of offline travel agencies has lagged behind due to changing consumer habits [33][39]. - The online travel market has rapidly expanded, with significant growth in domestic travel agency numbers and a strong recovery in travel volumes compared to pre-pandemic levels [34][39].