A股投资策略双周报告：春节前后市场胜率或较高

Core Insights - The report indicates that the A-share market is expected to have a higher winning probability before and after the Spring Festival, with an 80% probability of the Shanghai Composite Index rising in the first three trading days before the festival and a 70% probability in the five trading days after [4][13][15]. Economic Overview - The economic growth in 2024 achieved the expected target, with a growth rate of 5.0% compared to 2023. The fourth quarter saw a year-on-year growth of 5.4%, benefiting from the continuous release of macro policy effects [4][8]. - Consumption demand continued to expand, contributing 44.5% to economic growth, while fixed asset investment grew by 3.2% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment increasing by 9.2% [8][10]. - Net exports contributed 30.3% to economic growth, with exports increasing by 7.1% year-on-year, indicating a robust external demand [8][10]. Real Estate Sector - The real estate market showed signs of marginal recovery, with a 10.6% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment in 2024. However, new housing sales in major cities have shown a continuous month-on-month increase since October 2024 [10][12]. - The risk level in the real estate market has significantly weakened, and the overall transaction level is improving, suggesting a positive trend for the sector [10][12]. Currency and Trade - The RMB exchange rate stabilized and rebounded significantly, supported by a weakening US dollar index and better-than-expected foreign trade growth. The trade surplus has provided favorable support for the RMB [11][12]. - The report highlights that the "grab export" effect is evident, particularly with a notable increase in exports to the US, which rose by 15.59% year-on-year in December 2024 [8][10]. Industry and Theme Allocation - Key sectors to focus on include consumption, technology innovation, export replacement, and the real estate chain. The report emphasizes the importance of policies promoting consumption and technological advancements [18][20][24]. - The report suggests that the consumer market is expected to maintain stable growth in 2025, with a focus on food and beverage, home appliances, and automobiles [18][20].