Investment Rating - Maintains an OUTPERFORM rating with a target price of HKD 14.39 [1][2] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve stable growth in its pharmaceutical distribution business, with a projected revenue increase of 8.0% in 2024 [3][12] - The pharmaceutical manufacturing sector is forecasted to decline by 6.5% in 2024 due to price reductions and slower growth in traditional Chinese medicine products [3][12] - The company is actively cutting costs and improving efficiency, which is expected to reduce sales and management expense ratios [4][13] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Total revenue for 2024 is projected to be CNY 277.3 billion, a 6.5% year-on-year increase [3][12] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach CNY 4.8 billion in 2024, a 28.1% increase from the previous year [4][13] - Gross profit margin is expected to decline by 0.9 percentage points to 11.1% in 2024 due to price cuts and a higher proportion of low-margin distribution business [4][13] Business Segments - Pharmaceutical distribution business is expected to generate CNY 252.7 billion in revenue, an 8.0% increase, driven by growth in CSO services, import agency business, and SPD services [3][12] - Pharmaceutical manufacturing sector is expected to generate CNY 24.6 billion in revenue, a 6.5% decline, primarily due to price reductions for polymyxin B and slower growth in traditional Chinese medicine products [3][12] Cost Efficiency and Expenses - Sales expense ratio is expected to decrease by 0.7 percentage points to 4.6% in 2024 [4][13] - Management expense ratio is expected to decrease by 0.1 percentage points to 2.1% in 2024 [4][13] - Financial expense ratio is expected to remain stable at 0.6% [4][13] Acquisition and Strategic Moves - The company acquired a 10% equity stake in Shanghai Hutchison Pharmaceuticals Limited, increasing its total stake to 60% and becoming the actual controller [4][14] - Shanghai Hutchison Pharmaceuticals reported revenues of CNY 2.7 billion and a net profit of CNY 660 million in 2023 [4][14] Valuation and Financial Metrics - The company's valuation is based on a DCF model with a WACC of 6.2%, a perpetual growth rate of 3%, and a 60% discount for H-shares relative to A-shares [5][15] - The current stock price corresponds to 2024/2025 P/E ratios of 8.7x/7.7x [5][15] ESG Performance - The company has established a comprehensive environmental management system and is committed to social responsibility and charitable causes [18][19] - The company continuously improves its sustainability governance system and ESG structure [19]
上海医药：2024年业绩前瞻：医药商业稳定增长；降本增效持续推进