煤焦钢春季策略：需求望复苏，下游看弹性，上游看红利

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "Outperform" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the coal industry is expected to benefit from ongoing policy support and a potential recovery in domestic demand, particularly in the construction sector, which is closely linked to steel demand [5][13] - The focus on infrastructure investment and the easing of real estate policies are anticipated to drive demand for coal and its derivatives [15][19] - The report highlights the limited supply growth of coking coal, which is expected to enhance its value proposition in the market [5][32] Summary by Sections 1. Policy Support and Domestic Demand Recovery - Continuous policy measures are expected to stimulate domestic demand, particularly in the construction sector, which is crucial for the coal industry [5][15] - The government has announced significant infrastructure investments, including the issuance of long-term special bonds amounting to 1 trillion yuan, aimed at boosting economic growth [15][16] - Real estate policies have been adjusted to stabilize the market, with measures such as reduced mortgage rates and tax incentives for homebuyers [19][21] 2. Coking Coal: Limited Supply Growth and Value Enhancement - Coking coal supply is primarily sourced from domestic production, with imports supplementing the supply. In 2023, domestic production reached 490.34 million tons, with imports at 101.93 million tons [32][35] - The report indicates that the supply of coking coal is expected to tighten due to limited new production capacity and ongoing safety regulations affecting output [32][39] - The cost support for coking coal prices is anticipated to prevent significant declines, with a projected price floor of 1,100 yuan per ton [5][36] 3. Coking Coke: Supply Structure Optimization - The coking coke industry is experiencing a structural optimization, with supply expected to contract due to stricter environmental regulations and the elimination of outdated production capacity [5][6] - In 2023, China's coking coke production was 490 million tons, with net exports of 8.55 million tons, indicating a strong domestic market [5][6] - The report suggests that the profitability of coking coke producers may improve as supply contracts and demand stabilizes [5][6] 4. Steel Industry: Supply Restructuring and Profit Recovery - The steel industry is facing a restructuring of supply, with expectations of profit recovery as production capacity is consolidated and outdated facilities are phased out [5][6] - The report notes that the profitability of steel producers has been under pressure, but recent policy measures are expected to support a rebound in margins [5][6] - The anticipated recovery in the construction sector is likely to benefit the steel industry, which is a key downstream consumer of coal [5][6] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies within the coal sector that are well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated recovery in demand and the structural changes in the industry [5][6] - Specific companies highlighted for potential investment include Shaanxi Black Cat, Meijin Energy, and Kailuan [6]