JIANGNAN CHEMICAL(002226) 德邦证券·2025-01-23 12:33Investment Rating - The investment rating for Jiangnan Chemical (002226.SZ) is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - Jiangnan Chemical's 2024 performance is expected to exceed expectations, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from 866 million to 1.098 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.02% to 42.02% [6][9] - The company has secured significant contracts, with a total of 10.18 billion yuan in new contracts for 2024, indicating strong growth potential [6][10] - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic civil explosives industry, benefiting from favorable conditions in Xinjiang and ongoing debt resolution policies [6][9] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Jiangnan Chemical's stock price has shown a relative performance against the CSI 300 index, with absolute growth rates of 5.20% over 1 month, 4.81% over 2 months, and 27.19% over 3 months [3][4] Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit of 866 million to 1.098 billion yuan for 2024, with a significant increase in Q4 net profit projected to be between 116 million and 348 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 59.14% to 376.55% [6][9] - The total revenue for 2024 is forecasted to be 9.81 billion yuan, with a net profit of 952 million yuan, and an EPS of 0.36 yuan [12] Contract and Order Situation - Jiangnan Chemical has signed or begun executing contracts worth 27.47 billion yuan for the second half of 2024, with a total of 101.8 billion yuan in new contracts for the year [6][10] - The company has a strong order backlog, with 85.2% of contracts exceeding 100 million yuan, indicating a robust pipeline for future revenue [6][10] Industry Position - Jiangnan Chemical is the leading company in the civil explosives sector, with a production capacity of 768,500 tons of explosives, benefiting from high demand in Xinjiang [6][9] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of the civil explosives industry and the injection of quality assets from its major shareholder, the Weapon Group [6][9]