宏观研究：“特朗普2.0”对华加征关税在不同情景下的影响测算

Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on China’s Exports - The "Trump 1.0" tariffs affected approximately $370 billion worth of goods, accounting for 68.7% of U.S. imports from China in 2018[3] - Average tariff rates on Chinese imports rose from 3.1% in early 2018 to 21% by the end of 2019, before slightly decreasing to 19.3% in early 2020[3][4] - Before tariff implementation, Chinese exports to the U.S. saw significant increases, with average growth rates of 21.5%, 31.8%, and 14.6% for different tariff lists, compared to an overall export growth of 11.2%[6] Group 2: Export Trends Post-Tariff Implementation - After tariffs were enacted, exports of goods on the "301 tariff" list dropped by 15.1%, while non-tariff list exports grew by 7.9%[7] - The share of Chinese exports to the U.S. fell from 19.1% in 2017 to 15.0% in 2023, while the U.S. share of imports from China decreased from 17.4% to 11.1%[8][47] - Despite a decline in direct exports to the U.S., China's global export share increased from 12.8% in 2017 to 14.2% in 2023[10][47] Group 3: Future Tariff Scenarios and Economic Impact - A 10% tariff increase could lead to a 12% drop in Chinese exports to the U.S. and a 0.3% decrease in China's GDP growth[11] - A potential 20%-30% tariff increase could result in a 24-36% decline in exports to the U.S. and a 0.7%-1.0% reduction in GDP growth[12] - In an extreme scenario with a 60% tariff, exports to the U.S. could plummet by 49%, leading to a 1.4% decrease in GDP growth[12] Group 4: Strategic Responses and Recommendations - China should implement strong countermeasures against U.S. tariffs and enhance negotiation leverage[15] - Increasing domestic demand and fiscal measures are crucial to offset potential declines in external demand[15] - Expanding trade partnerships, particularly with "Belt and Road" countries, is essential for maintaining export growth[15]