CMOC(603993) 光大证券·2025-01-23 12:58Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a current price of 7.11 yuan [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.8-14.2 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 55.2%-72.1% [1]. - The fourth quarter performance exceeded expectations, primarily due to an increase in copper sales, with a projected net profit of 5.23 billion yuan for 24Q4, up 83% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The company is optimistic about copper prices rising in 2025, as market concerns over a strong dollar and tariffs are expected to diminish [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company anticipates a significant increase in copper and cobalt production in 2024, with copper production expected to rise by 55% year-on-year [2]. - The average copper price for 24Q4 is projected to be 75,500 yuan per ton, a 0.5% increase quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The estimated net profit for 2024-2026 is projected to be 12.9 billion, 12.0 billion, and 13.4 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12, 13, and 11 times [4]. Production Capacity and Expansion - The TFM and KFM projects are set to expand, with TFM achieving an annual capacity of 450,000 tons of copper and 37,000 tons of cobalt, while KFM is expected to produce 150,000 tons of copper and 50,000 tons of cobalt [3]. - The company aims to reach an annual production of 800,000-1,000,000 tons of copper and 90,000-100,000 tons of cobalt by 2028 [3]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the global copper concentrate production growth will slow in the first half of 2025, while demand from the electrical grid remains stable [3]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated increase in copper prices due to strong demand in the air conditioning sector in early 2025 [3].