英大证券：金点策略晨报-20250124

Core Views - The upcoming second term of Trump as US President introduces uncertainties in US-China relations, which may impact the domestic economy and A-share market [2][10] - The A-share market has shown signs of stabilization, benefiting from positive macroeconomic policy expectations and increased market stabilization measures, with a potential for continued rebound in the future [2][10] A-share Market Analysis - On a recent trading day, the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets experienced narrow fluctuations with a slight increase in trading volume, where 3,613 stocks rose, 1,587 fell, and 186 remained unchanged [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,244.38 points, up 2.56 points (0.08%), with a trading volume of 469.7 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,256.40 points, up 95.07 points (0.94%), with a trading volume of 713.2 billion yuan [4] Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 123 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, maintaining the operation rate at 1.5%, to alleviate short-term borrowing rate pressures ahead of the Spring Festival [5] - The domestic GDP growth rate for 2024 is projected at 5%, indicating a stable economic development trend [5] - The loan market quotation rate (LPR) remains unchanged, with the 1-year LPR at 3.1% and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%, while the domestic interest rate adjustments are still influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [5] Real Estate Market Outlook - The Ministry of Finance plans to promote local special bonds to acquire land and idle properties, which is expected to improve developers' cash flow [10] - The domestic real estate market has shown signs of improvement in sales since Q4 2024, with expectations for continued recovery in 2025 due to anticipated loose monetary policies [10] Sector Performance - The electric power equipment and communication sectors have been active, with significant investments expected in 2025, particularly in optimizing the main grid and supporting high-quality development of renewable energy [8] - The State Grid is expected to invest over 650 billion yuan in 2025, focusing on major projects that enhance infrastructure [8] Corporate Actions and Market Confidence - Over 300 listed companies have announced stock repurchase plans using bank loans, with over 40% of these companies having a market capitalization exceeding 10 billion yuan, indicating a positive effect on market stability and confidence [7] - The recent rise in international oil prices and commodity prices is expected to improve the profitability of state-owned industrial enterprises, potentially supporting stock price recovery [7]