皖能电力：业绩超预期 EPS仍有增长

Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's 2024-2026 net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 2,135/2,304/2,431 million, with year-on-year growth rates of 49%/8%/6% respectively [5] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 7/7/6 times for 2024-2026 [5] - The stock price has corrected by approximately 18% since December 18, 2024, due to lower-than-expected long-term contract electricity prices in Anhui Province [5] - Despite short-term impacts on asset returns, the company is expected to achieve growth in performance through volume compensation in the medium term [5] - The current valuation is at a historically low level, supporting the "Buy" rating [5] Financial Performance - The company's 2024 annual performance forecast predicts a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 2,000-2,250 million, a year-on-year increase of 39.91%-57.40% [7] - The non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 1,977-2,227 million, a year-on-year increase of 54.09%-73.57% [7] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 417-667 million, significantly higher than the RMB 125 million in the same period of 2023 [7] - The fourth quarter's performance exceeded market expectations, partly due to a low base in 2023 and reduced pressure from asset impairment provisions [7] Operational Highlights - Anhui Province's electricity supply-demand situation remains tight, with a projected power shortage exceeding 20,000 MW in 2025 [7] - The launch of the electricity spot market in Anhui Province may provide excess returns, potentially becoming a catalyst for the company's performance and stock price in 2025 [7] - The company's new power plants, such as the Xinjiang Yingema Power Plant (2*660 MW), are expected to contribute to future growth [7] - Additional power plants, including Banji Phase II and others, are scheduled to be operational between 2025 and 2027, further boosting installed capacity [7] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 28,368/29,436/30,513 million, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.80%/3.77%/3.66% [6] - EPS for 2024-2026 is expected to be RMB 0.94/1.02/1.07 per share [6] - ROE for 2024-2026 is forecasted at 14.01%/13.77%/13.27% [6] - The company's P/E ratio for 2024-2026 is estimated at 7.27/6.74/6.39 times [6] Market Performance - The closing price on January 22, 2025, was RMB 6.85 [3] - The total market capitalization is RMB 15,528.01 million, with a circulating market capitalization of RMB 15,528.01 million [3] - The company's asset-liability ratio is 65.71%, and the net asset value per share is RMB 6.80 [3]