CSEC,China Shenhua(601088) 民生证券·2025-01-24 00:29Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 57.473 billion to 60 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year change of -4.5% to +0.5% [1]. - The company plans to increase its minimum dividend payout ratio to 65% for the years 2025-2027, up from 60% for 2022-2024, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [4]. - The company benefits from a high proportion of long-term contracts, which enhances its earnings stability and dividend value [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company anticipates a net profit of 570 to 600 billion yuan, with a decrease in special reserve provisions by 25% to 37 billion yuan [1][2]. - The company’s coal production is projected to be 327.1 million tons, a 0.8% increase year-on-year, while total power generation is expected to reach 223.21 billion kWh, a 5.2% increase [3]. Dividend Policy - The company has consistently exceeded its dividend commitments, with actual payout ratios of 72.8% and 75.2% for 2022 and 2023, respectively [4]. - The commitment to a higher dividend payout ratio reflects the company's focus on maintaining a stable and predictable profit distribution policy [4]. Earnings Forecast - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 57.473 billion, 54.971 billion, and 57.742 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.89, 2.77, and 2.91 yuan per share [4][6]. - The company’s PE ratios for the same period are expected to be 13, 14, and 13 times, indicating a stable valuation outlook [4][6].