Cubic(688665) 光大证券·2025-01-24 00:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future investment returns [4][6]. Core Insights - The sensor industry is experiencing continuous growth, driven by trends towards high precision, integration, miniaturization, and intelligence, which are essential for industrial transformation and quality improvement [1]. - The "dual carbon" policy is expected to further propel the industry, with significant reductions in energy consumption and carbon emissions mandated for 2024 and 2025, leading to increased demand for gas analysis instruments and sensors [2]. - The company holds a leading position in the industry, recognized as a national high-tech enterprise and a champion in specialized fields, with a global market share of PM sensors ranking first [3]. Financial Performance and Forecast - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenues of 540 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20%, but a net profit of 62 million yuan, reflecting a 39% decline [3]. - The profit forecast for 2024 and 2025 has been revised downwards to 101 million yuan and 134 million yuan respectively, with a new estimate for 2026 at 173 million yuan, indicating a significant reduction in expected profitability [4]. - Revenue projections show a steady increase from 818 million yuan in 2024 to 1.199 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profit growth anticipated [10]. Key Financial Metrics - The company’s revenue growth rates are projected at 18.32% for 2024, 22.39% for 2025, and 19.66% for 2026 [5]. - The estimated P/E ratios are set at 34 for 2024, 26 for 2025, and 20 for 2026, reflecting a valuation adjustment in light of the revised profit forecasts [12]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline to 10.07% in 2024 but recover to 14.44% by 2026 [12].