CMOC(603993) 国盛证券·2025-01-24 00:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH) is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.8-14.2 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 55.2%-72.1% [1] - The company has significantly increased its copper and cobalt production, with a notable rise in profits due to the elasticity of copper prices [1] - The company has set production guidance for 2025, forecasting copper production of 600,000-660,000 tons and cobalt production of 100,000-120,000 tons [1] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 4.5-5.9 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 58.6%-107.6% [1] - The annual production of copper is expected to reach 650,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 55%, and cobalt production is projected at 114,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 106% [1] Project Development - The company has signed a cooperation agreement for the Nzilo II hydropower station, which will support long-term stable electricity supply for new capacity [2] - The company is focusing on internal growth potential, with ongoing development in the TFM West area and positive progress in KFM Phase II exploration [2] Market Outlook - Domestic macroeconomic policies are expected to support copper prices, with a projected increase in fiscal spending and a growing GDP [3] - The supply side shows a tightening of upstream ore supply, which may lead to increased profits concentrated in the upstream mining sector [3] Financial Forecast - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 13.23 billion, 13.73 billion, and 14.26 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.6, 11.2, and 10.8 times [4] - Revenue is expected to grow from 186.27 billion yuan in 2023 to 208.43 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 11.9% [5]