2025年有色行业年度策略报告：金铜共舞，拾级而上

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, specifically for gold and copper [5]. Core Insights - Gold is expected to continue its upward trend in 2025 due to a favorable monetary environment and increasing central bank purchases [11][40]. - Copper demand is projected to grow significantly driven by energy transition and AI trends, while supply constraints are expected to tighten the market [10][42]. Summary by Sections Gold: The Anchor of Currency - Global central banks have initiated a rate-cutting cycle, leading to a decline in real interest rates, which supports gold prices [20][21]. - High levels of U.S. debt and fiscal deficits are expected to increase credit risk for the dollar, thereby enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [24][28]. - A significant 81% of surveyed central banks anticipate an increase in gold reserves, reflecting gold's value in hedging against inflation and geopolitical risks [30][35]. Copper: Supply Constraints and New Growth Drivers - The supply of copper concentrate is tightening, with production growth expected to be the lowest since 2021, primarily due to operational disruptions and declining ore grades [42][47]. - The energy transition and AI developments are projected to create a substantial increase in copper demand, with an estimated additional need of 12 million tons annually by 2035 [2][10]. - The global economy is expected to grow, providing a stable demand base for copper, with OECD predicting a global GDP growth rate of 3.32% in 2025 [4][10]. Investment Recommendations - For gold, companies with strong resource endowments and effective cost control are expected to benefit, with a focus on firms like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [41]. - For copper, companies with significant resource reserves and those involved in high-end copper alloy processing are likely to gain from the anticipated demand surge [11][41].