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计算机行业专题:美国制裁密集出台,全面围堵对我国的AI算力供应能力
Zhongyuan Securities·2025-01-24 01:43

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market" indicating that the industry index is expected to fluctuate between -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [62] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the U.S. government has intensified sanctions against China's AI computing supply capabilities, creating a comprehensive blockade [3][10] - The report anticipates that the ongoing sanctions will significantly impact China's AI and chip industries, with a focus on the implications of these restrictions on domestic AI development [11][12] - The report notes that China's gap in large model capabilities compared to the U.S. is gradually narrowing, with advancements in various AI applications such as autonomous driving and robotics [8][41] Summary by Sections 1. U.S. Sanctions on China's Technology Sector - The U.S. has expanded sanctions to include 140 Chinese entities, affecting AI and chip industries significantly [11] - New regulations have been introduced to control the global application of AI chips and models, with a tiered system for different countries [18][20] - Restrictions on the sale of connected vehicles and advanced semiconductor manufacturing processes have been implemented [1][17][26] 2. China's Response to Sanctions - China is actively developing countermeasures against U.S. sanctions, including enhancing domestic production capabilities and tightening export controls on dual-use items [34][38] - Recent measures include sanctions against U.S. military companies and increased scrutiny of U.S. chip imports [39][40] 3. Increasing Investment in AI - Both domestic and international investments in AI are on the rise, with major tech companies planning significant capital expenditures for AI infrastructure [47][50] - The report indicates that the domestic AI server market is seeing a rapid increase in the proportion of locally produced chips, rising from 10% to 20% within a year [57] 4. Future Outlook - The report predicts that the new U.S. administration may exhibit a more conciliatory approach towards China, potentially easing some sanctions while maintaining a focus on AI [58][59] - The ability of Chinese companies to innovate and adapt to sanctions will be crucial for future growth in the AI sector [58]