电子行业研究周报：台积电AI相关营收展望乐观，美强化对华半导体制裁

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [7] Core Insights - TSMC's fourth-quarter performance is strong, driven by high-performance computing and smartphones, with revenue reaching NT$868.46 billion, a year-on-year increase of 38.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.3% [2][28] - TSMC's AI-related revenue is expected to grow significantly, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 40% over the next five years [3][31] - The U.S. has intensified sanctions on semiconductor exports to China, particularly targeting advanced processors, which may accelerate the domestic semiconductor industry's development [4][32] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shenwan Electronics Industry Index rose by 4.08% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.94% [1][12] - Among the sub-industries, analog chip design, semiconductor materials, discrete devices, brand consumer electronics, and electronic chemicals showed strong performance, exceeding the CSI 300 Index by 8.12%, 6.22%, 5.48%, 4.20%, and 3.29% respectively [1][18] Company Performance - TSMC's Q4 2024 gross margin reached 59.0%, exceeding the upper limit of its performance outlook, with a net profit margin of 49.0% [2][28] - The sales proportion of 7nm and below processes increased to 74% in Q4 2024, up from 69% in Q3 2024, indicating a strong trend towards advanced manufacturing processes [2][28] Industry Dynamics - The U.S. has implemented new export controls on chips with over 30 billion transistors produced at 14nm/16nm nodes, affecting major manufacturers like TSMC and Samsung [4][32] - The report suggests that these sanctions will likely shift high-performance chip manufacturing towards domestic firms, benefiting local equipment and advanced packaging sectors [4][32] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on leading foundries, semiconductor equipment, and materials companies such as North Huachuang, Zhongwei Company, and others, driven by domestic substitution and AI demand [4][32]