银行业2025年度投资策略：红利复苏兼备，以稳制胜

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market" [2] Core Viewpoints - The macro policy for 2025 is expected to be more proactive, focusing on stabilizing growth and expanding domestic demand, with a supportive monetary policy stance from the central bank [5][29] - The banking sector is anticipated to exhibit a combination of stable dividend attributes and recovery trading logic, maintaining the "In line with the market" rating [5][71] - The report suggests three main investment strategies: 1. A stable dividend strategy focusing on undervalued, high-dividend stocks [5][71] 2. A focus on the banking sector's defensive attributes amid rising external uncertainties [5][71] 3. Attention to recovery trading targets, particularly core assets like China Merchants Bank and Ningbo Bank, which may see valuation recovery if policy measures exceed expectations [5][71] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Review - The banking sector outperformed the market in 2024, with a recorded annual increase of 31.42%, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index by 18.77 percentage points [9][10] - The overall revenue growth for listed banks in the first three quarters of 2024 was -1.05%, showing a slight improvement compared to previous periods [14][17] 2. Macroeconomic Environment and Policy Outlook - The report anticipates a gradual increase in government debt-driven social financing growth, with credit growth expected to slightly decline to around 7.6% [5][39] - The central bank is expected to maintain a supportive monetary policy stance, with potential room for 50-75 basis points of reserve requirement ratio cuts and 30-40 basis points of interest rate cuts in 2025 [31][36] 3. Credit and Interest Margin - Credit growth is projected to be more focused on structural rather than total volume, with a slight decline in overall credit growth expected [5][39] - The net interest margin is anticipated to continue declining, but the downward pressure is expected to be less than in 2024 [5][46] 4. Non-Interest Income - The decline in intermediary business income is expected to narrow, while other non-interest income contributions may decrease [5][55][56] - The report highlights that the wealth management market remains a significant growth area for banks, despite short-term pressures from fee reductions [5][55] 5. Asset Quality - The overall asset quality of listed banks is stable, with non-performing loan ratios remaining steady at 1.25% [5][23] - The report indicates that the peak of real estate-related non-performing loans has passed, with ongoing policy support expected to mitigate systemic risks [5][60][61]