Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market" [3] Core Insights - The beauty care industry is experiencing a weak recovery, with consumer confidence and spending still cautious. The overall retail sales of cosmetics declined by 1.1% year-on-year in 2024, lagging behind the overall retail growth of 3.5% [12][21] - The beauty care index underperformed the broader market, with a decline of 6.47% in 2024, ranking 29th among 31 sub-industries [21][66] - The market is witnessing increased competition, with top brands gaining market share, while domestic brands are rapidly emerging [32][39] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The total retail sales of consumer goods in 2024 reached 487,894.8 billion yuan, growing by 3.5% year-on-year, but below pre-pandemic levels [12] - The beauty care sector's performance was under pressure, with a cumulative increase of -10.34% in 2024, significantly underperforming the CSI 300 index by 23.01 percentage points [12][21] 2. Cosmetics Sector - The market concentration is increasing, with the top 20 online brands capturing 22.3% of the market share, up by 2.5 percentage points from the previous year [32][35] - Domestic brands are gaining momentum, with the average growth rate of domestic brands at 43.33%, significantly higher than the 17.78% growth of foreign brands [39] - The online sales of cosmetics reached 4,045.9 billion yuan in 2023, with the Taobao platform leading with a market share of 50.6% during the Double 11 shopping festival [45][49] 3. Medical Aesthetics Sector - The medical aesthetics sector is under short-term pressure but maintains a long-term growth trend, particularly in the recombinant collagen market, which is expected to grow significantly [54][60] - The market for recombinant collagen is projected to reach 1,145 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 41.45% from 2023 to 2027 [64] - The approval of new medical aesthetic products is accelerating, indicating a positive regulatory environment for the industry [56][60] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on strong domestic brands with solid fundamentals, such as Proya and Marubi, as well as high-quality brands with differentiation and cost-effectiveness, like Runben [66] - The report emphasizes the potential of leading companies in the recombinant collagen space, such as Jinbo Biological, which is expected to see significant growth due to its unique product offerings and market positioning [66][81]
美容护理行业2025年度策略：稳中求变，守正出奇
财信证券·2025-01-24 05:40