Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The traditional "pig cycle" has failed since 2022, with significant changes in the industry structure and market behavior, leading to a shift in focus from profitability to cash flow analysis [1][12][16] - The supply price elasticity of pork is low, while demand remains stable, contributing to the difficulty in maintaining long-term price stability [2][12] - The industry has experienced three complete "pig cycles" from 2010 to 2022, characterized by cyclical price fluctuations driven by breeding systems and market structures [4][6][10] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - Pork is a major protein source in China, with per capita consumption at 30.5 kg in 2023, leading to a market value of approximately 2 trillion [2] - The average price of live pigs in the national market was 15.67 yuan/kg as of December 19, 2024, down over 25% from mid-year highs [2] Historical "Pig Cycles" - The report outlines three cycles from 2010 to 2022, with significant price increases and decreases influenced by external factors such as disease outbreaks and policy changes [4][6] - The last cycle saw a price increase of nearly 300% from May 2018 to October 2019, primarily driven by African swine fever [6][12] Changes in Industry Structure - The industry has shifted from a pyramid breeding system dominated by smallholders to a more professionalized and scaled operation, leading to increased market concentration [12][13] - The rise of large-scale enterprises has altered market dynamics, reducing the predictability of the traditional four-year cycle [12][13] Cash Flow and Credit Risk Analysis - The focus on cash flow is critical, as the industry faces a prolonged period of losses since 2022, with cash flow being a key determinant of operational sustainability [16][17] - As of December 16, 2024, the total bond issuance in the industry was 626.69 billion yuan, with a concentration among major players like Muyuan Foods and WH Group [19][20] Future Outlook - The report anticipates a cautious increase in supply in 2025, with a slight decline in the average price level compared to 2024, influenced by stable demand and improved breeding efficiency [30][42] - The overall credit risk in the industry is expected to remain manageable, with differentiation between strong and weak players based on cost control and financing capabilities [44][45]
生猪养殖行业：现金流视角下，传统“猪周期”变化及生猪养殖行业信用风险分析
Da Gong Guo Ji·2025-01-24 05:41