融资担保行业2025年信用风险展望：业务承压谋破局之径 政策助力拓“新”域布局

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable credit quality outlook for the financing guarantee industry in 2025, with a focus on supporting small and micro enterprises, agriculture, and technological innovation [3][5][46]. Core Insights - The financing guarantee industry is expected to face operational pressure due to a contraction in bond guarantee business and a cautious approach to market-oriented loan guarantees, with profitability continuing to be under pressure [3][4][19]. - The industry is anticipated to see a stable competitive landscape, with credit quality remaining stable and liquidity risks being manageable [3][4][32]. - The report highlights the importance of government policies in supporting the financing guarantee sector, particularly in enhancing support for strategic emerging industries and alleviating financing difficulties for small and micro enterprises [5][6][7]. Industry Policy - In 2024, policies will continue to emphasize increasing direct financing, with a focus on resource allocation to small and micro enterprises, agriculture, and technological innovation [4][5]. - By 2025, it is expected that financing guarantee institutions will receive more support from local governments, enhancing their ability to support strategic emerging industries [5][6]. Business Operations - The focus of market-oriented business for guarantee institutions remains on urban investment bonds, although the scale of bond guarantee business is expected to decline due to various factors [9][10][18]. - The report notes a significant increase in the issuance of overseas bonds, with a total of 379.60 billion yuan in new overseas bond guarantees from January to November 2024, compared to only 0.50 billion yuan in 2023 [13]. Asset Quality - The report indicates that the guarantee institutions will face significant compensation pressure in their loan guarantee business, but overall asset quality is expected to remain controllable [22][25]. - The structure of assets will continue to prioritize high liquidity assets, with a focus on managing credit risk and liquidity [22][25]. Profitability - Profitability for guarantee institutions is projected to remain under pressure due to low guarantee fee rates and declining income from funding operations [26][31]. - The report anticipates a continued decline in guarantee business income, with the income from interest-bearing assets also being compressed [26][31]. Liquidity - The liquidity risk for guarantee institutions is expected to remain manageable, with high liquidity assets effectively covering interest-bearing debts and compensation shocks from loan guarantees [32][38]. - The overall leverage level of guarantee institutions is low, and they face minimal pressure from on-balance-sheet debt management [32][38]. Capital Adequacy - The capital replenishment demand for market-oriented guarantee institutions is expected to decrease, but there will be a differentiation in capital levels across the industry [39][41]. - The report highlights that while some government-backed guarantee institutions may see an increase in capital replenishment needs, the overall pace of capital expansion in the industry is expected to slow down [39][41]. Credit Quality - The credit quality of guarantee institutions engaged in bond guarantee business is expected to remain high, with a significant proportion rated AAA [46][48]. - The report indicates that the overall credit quality of the financing guarantee industry will remain stable, supported by the strong credit levels of major institutions [46][48].