全球视点：正处甜区

Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is projected to be in a "sweet spot" with robust growth and declining inflation by the presidential inauguration in January 2025, with an estimated real GDP growth of 2.6% in Q4 2024 and a similar growth rate expected for 2025, which is 0.5 percentage points higher than Bloomberg's latest market forecast [1][2][3] Labor Market Analysis - The labor market signals are aligning with GDP signals, as non-farm payrolls increased by 256,000 in December, with three and six-month trend rates exceeding the estimated breakeven growth rate of 150,000 jobs needed to maintain stable unemployment [4][6] - The current labor market is characterized by low hiring and low layoffs, with a composite measure of labor market tightness remaining below levels seen in 2018-2019, which correlates with a wage growth rate of 3.5%-4% that aligns with a 2% inflation target [7][8] Inflation Trends - December's inflation was below expectations, with core PCE price growth at 0.16%, indicating a gradual decline in inflation, although this trend may be obscured by month-to-month data volatility and adjustments [9][14] - The market remains sensitive to inflation surprises, with expectations for a potential acceleration in core PCE growth due to the "January effect" [13][14] Monetary Policy Outlook - Confidence in U.S. monetary policy suggests no interest rate cuts in January, with a baseline forecast predicting two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in June and December 2025, leading to a terminal rate of 3.5%-3.75% [14][15] - The pricing of monetary policy risks appears overly hawkish, with potential for earlier rate cuts if economic data deteriorates significantly [14][15] Trade Policy Implications - The Trump administration is expected to increase tariffs on China by an average of 20 percentage points and impose high tariffs on European and Mexican automotive products, with the potential for further trade policy changes impacting financial markets [16][17] European Market Insights - The European market is facing trade policy uncertainties, with a growth forecast of 0.8% that remains below market expectations, and the European Central Bank may increase rate cuts to 50 basis points if the situation escalates [19][21] Japanese Economic Policy - The Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.5%, supported by rising wage growth trends, although a decision to forgo this increase could lead to significant currency depreciation [22][23] Chinese Economic Performance - China's GDP growth reached 6.6% in Q4 2024, achieving the 5% growth target for 2024, but a slowdown to 4.0% is anticipated in Q1 2025 due to the diminishing effects of stimulus policies [24][25] Market Strategy - There is a belief that the pricing of rate cuts by major developed market central banks is too low, with long-term interest rates expected to decline, particularly in the U.S. and Germany [26]