2025年1月策略月报：中长期资金入市步伐有望加快

Core Insights - The report indicates that the pace of long-term capital entering the market is expected to accelerate, driven by favorable policies aimed at promoting the healthy development of the capital market [2][4][43]. Market Overview - As of January 23, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,230.16 points, down 3.63% from the end of December. Major indices such as the SSE 50 and CSI 300 experienced significant declines [10][11]. - The A-share market saw a decrease in trading activity, with the average daily turnover from January 1 to January 22 being 120.86 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.99% month-on-month [28][34]. Market Liquidity and Risk Sentiment - The liquidity environment in the A-share market is expected to improve, as the scale of lock-up releases decreased and net selling by major shareholders declined. A joint implementation plan was issued by six departments to promote the entry of long-term capital into the market [21][24]. - Investor confidence in the A-share market has slightly declined, with trading activity cooling as the Spring Festival approaches. However, sectors such as TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) continue to perform well, particularly in communications and electronics [30][46]. Valuation Levels - As of January 23, 2025, the dynamic price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the major A-share indices indicates that the technology-heavy ChiNext index is at a historical high, while the P/E ratios for the CSI 300 and SSE 50 have decreased significantly [39][41]. - Most sectors have seen a decline in valuation levels, with industries such as basic chemicals, electronics, and real estate exceeding the historical 50th percentile for P/E ratios [41]. Policy Analysis - The report highlights that the Chinese government is implementing more proactive macroeconomic policies to stimulate domestic demand and promote technological and industrial innovation. A joint plan was issued to enhance the investment of long-term capital in the stock market [43][44]. - The focus is on increasing the investment ratios of commercial insurance and national social security funds in equity assets, aiming to stabilize market expectations and improve investor sentiment [43][46]. Market Outlook and Sector Recommendations - The overall economic operation in China is expected to remain stable, with policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and technological innovation. The report suggests that sectors benefiting from increased consumer demand and technological advancements should be closely monitored [46][47].