券商板块月报：券商板块2024年12月回顾及2025年1月前瞻

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market," indicating that the industry index is expected to fluctuate between -10% to +10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [38]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the brokerage sector maintained a strong oscillation in December 2024, but experienced a significant adjustment towards the end of the month, with the index dropping by 3.86%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.33 percentage points [5][6]. - Key factors influencing the monthly performance of listed brokerages include a weakening in equity markets, an expansion in fixed income gains, and a slight increase in margin financing balances, although the contribution to monthly performance is narrowing [5][19]. - Looking ahead to January 2025, the report anticipates a decline in self-operated business performance due to downward pressure on equity self-operation, while fixed income self-operation is expected to show significant year-on-year improvement [28]. Summary by Sections December 2024 Brokerage Market Review - The brokerage index showed strong oscillation but ended with a significant adjustment, with a total drop of 3.86% for the month [5][6]. - The average P/B ratio for the brokerage sector fluctuated between 1.494 and 1.602, closing at 1.494, below the average valuation of 1.55 since 2016 [10]. Factors Affecting December 2024 Monthly Performance - Equity markets showed a weakening trend while fixed income markets gained strength, leading to a mixed performance in self-operated businesses [5][28]. - The average daily trading volume in December was 16,114 billion, reflecting a decrease of 18.12% month-on-month but a significant increase of 105.8% year-on-year [15]. - Margin financing balances increased slightly to 18,646 billion, indicating stable investor sentiment despite market fluctuations [19][21]. January 2025 Performance Outlook - The report predicts a decline in self-operated business performance due to downward pressure on equity indices, while fixed income self-operation is expected to remain strong [28]. - The brokerage sector is anticipated to experience a slight decline in overall monthly performance but with a strong year-on-year growth outlook [31]. Investment Recommendations - The brokerage sector is expected to enter a period of consolidation, with potential for a "Davis Double" effect as market conditions improve and policies are introduced [32][35]. - Investors are encouraged to focus on leading brokerages and those with significantly lower valuations compared to the sector average [35].